The headlines were horrifying yesterday for Mitt Romney supporters. One new poll had Romney trailing Rick Santorum in Michigan, Romney’s birthplace, by six points -- thirty-three to twenty-seven. The other poll was worse. It had Romney behind by fifteen points -- thirty-nine to twenty-four. Those are staggering numbers. And anything but the kind of Valentine the former Massachusetts governor expected to receive. How could this be?

Headlines across the country are proclaiming big news from last night’s primary and caucuses in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado. Headlines like Santorum revives his campaign with wins and Santorum’s Sweep Shakes up Race make it clear: Rick Santorum had a pretty darn good Tuesday night. The former U.S. Senator won all three states in play.

Although, no delegates were assigned, Santorum has something else: momentum. “Together, the three states voting Tuesday will eventually award 128 delegates. But Missouri was a ‘beauty contest’ with no delegates at stake, while Minnesota and Colorado were nonbinding events with delegates to be chosen this spring. At stake Tuesday night was the prestige of winning. And Santorum nailed down three upsets to restore an air of viability to his candidacy,” the Washington Post explains. The Post continues:

Santorum’s wins across the Midwest Tuesday could bestow new legitimacy on his insurgent efforts and boost his fundraising in the critical period before nextmonth’s major contests. Santorum now appears to pose a more serious threat not only to Romney, but also to Gingrich, who had been positioning himself as the logical alternative to Romney.

 

It’s official: Michigan’s 2012 Republican presidential primary will be held February 28th. After both the state House and Senate passed legislation designating the date, Governor Snyder signed it into law yesterday. The date means Michigan will be one of the earliest states in the nation to hold a primary, but it also means it could lose half of its nominating delegates according to Republican National Committee rules. So, why all the fuss about the presidential primary date? Political explains:

Both national parties are struggling to keep the national nominating schedule from imploding as state after state tries to move earlier than the next to have more say in picking the presidential nominee. Typically, the later the primary the less influence a state has in the nomination.

Under rules set by both national parties, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are the only states allowed to hold primaries or caucuses in February and no other state can hold a nominating election prior to March 6, which is likely to be a "Super Tuesday" with multiple contests.

As Political Analyst Jack Lessenberry explains, “Michigan, of course, wants to make a bigger splash, wants more attention, [but] it’s blunted because Mitt Romney is seen as Michigan’s favorite son and the Michigan primary is only important if Mitt Romney doesn’t win [the primary].”

Meanwhile, Michigan Democrats aren't planning a presidential primary in 2012 as President Obama is believed to be the only Democratic candidate who would be on the ballot. Instead, they'll pick their 2012 presidential delegates at state meetings.

A new bill introduced in the state Senate would let a three-member panel decide when to hold Michigan's Republican presidential primary in 2012. The measure would, as the Associated Press reports,"let a panel appointed by Gov. Rick Snyder, Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville and House Speaker Jase Bolger pick between February 28 and March 6," to hold the primary.

Under current state law, the primary is scheduled for February 28 but, the Republican National Committee has said it doesn't want states to hold their primaries that early. In fact, the RNC has said that states that choose to hold early primaries could lose half of their delegates at the party's nominating convention.

So, why all the fuss about an early date? Politico explains:

Both national parties are struggling to keep the national nominating schedule from imploding as state after state tries to move earlier than the next to have more say in picking the presidential nominee. Typically, the later the primary the less influence a state has in the nomination.

Under rules set by both national parties, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are the only states allowed to hold primaries or caucuses in February and no other state can hold a nominating election prior to March 6, which is likely to be a "Super Tuesday" with multiple contests.

Earlier this month, Laura Weber reported that some Republican leaders in the state wanted to hold an early primary, despite the consequences:

The chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, Robert Schostak, says he is not too concerned with being penalized for the decision, "The penalties are somewhat unclear. They haven’t been determined by the committee in finality. But if we would be penalized by losing delegates and we were trading that for relevancy, my sense is that the Legislature and the state committee that would be ultimately deciding on this are okay with it," Schostak said.

One thing is known about the 2012 GOP primary in the state: it'll be a 'closed' primary. From the AP:

Republican leaders in the state Senate say they will push for a closed presidential primary to take place in Michigan on February 28. That’s one week earlier than the National Republican Party rules allow and penalties could include having the state's convention delegates stripped. In today's "The Week in State Politics" Michigan Radio's Political Analyst Jack Lessenberry takes a look at what a February 28 GOP primary would mean for the state and the presidential primary candidates.

The Michigan Republican Party State Central Committee has decided the state GOP will use a closed presidential primary next year.

That means voters will have to declare a party preference to participate. If Michigan sticks with a February 28 election date, the state GOP could lose half its delegates to the national nominating convention for meeting earlier than party rules allow.

Michigan GOP leaders say the early influence is worth the risk. Michigan Democrats plan to hold closed caucuses May 5, and will likely withdraw from the primary election ballot.

The Michigan Republican Party State Committee will decide this weekend whether to hold a “closed” primary or caucus to choose the state’s Republican nominee for the 2012 presidential election. Last month, the party’s policy committee recommended a “closed” primary. From the Detroit News:

Many Republicans from the party's conservative tea party wing, who support candidates such as Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota or Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, prefer a caucus — based on party meetings at the precinct level — to determine the presidential delegates and believe a primary favors frontrunner Mitt Romney, who appeals to a broader political spectrum.

But the prospect of holding a handful of recall elections for GOP and Democratic state lawmakers at the same time as a presidential primary expected to draw far more Republicans than Democrats is a recent development that's making the primary more attractive…

Still, the primary — paid for by taxpayers at an estimated cost of $10 million — will be "closed" in name only. Nothing would stop Democrats from requesting a Republican ballot and meddling in the GOP presidential selection process. That meddling could be significant if an effort to recall Republican Gov. Rick Snyder makes it to the Feb. 28 ballot.

And, as Political Analyst Jack Lessenberry notes, the state knows a thing or two about so-called meddling in presidential primaries. “There would be the chance that Democrats and independents might show up in Michigan’s GOP primary, “ Lessenberry explains. “That happened in the year two thousand, when they helped John McCain give George W. Bush a whipping. If you have any kind of primary, stuff like that is pretty hard to prevent, since we have no party registration in Michigan. A Democrat can vote Republican or vice-versa, with no penalty. The alternative is some kind of closed convention, or caucus, but that limits public participation, which also could hurt the GOP, since primary campaigns help introduce the candidates to the voters.”

There will be no presidential primaryelection for Michigan Democrats in 2012.

Chairman Mark Brewer said Wednesday that national convention delegates will be picked through party meetings around the state, starting next May.

President Barack Obama, a Democrat, is expected to run unopposed for a second term next year.

Brewer says Michigan Democrats will hold caucuses in May at approximately 200 locations. He says more than 200 people will be delegates or alternates at the national convention.