Tagged: revenue estimating conference

A UM economic forecaster is predicting moderate economic growth for the state until 2014.

The Detroit Free Press reports that George Fulton, director of the Research Center on Quantitative Economics at the University of Michigan, gave the forecast at today's revenue estimating conference at the state Capitol.

From the Freep:

Private sector job growth will continue in 2013 and 2014 but at a more moderate pace than the rapid growth seen in 2011 and the early part of 2012, Fulton said.

"We see a sustained but moderately paced recovery from now until 2014," he said.

The revenue estimating conference is part of finalizing the state's 2013 budget.

Officials try to reach consensus on how much revenue the state can expect in the coming years.

MPRN's Rick Pluta is covering the conference and will have more for us later.

We all like to know the balance in our checking or our savings account, right? My guess is, every so often, you go online or you go to the bank and you see what your balance looks like. Maybe, if you’ve got a few extra bucks, you buy yourself something nice. Or, maybe the account is a little dry and, then, you know it’s time to cut back. Well, just like you, the state has an account… given, it’s probably MUCH larger… with many more zeros than you have… but the idea is the same.

This morning, in Lansing, the officials that keep an eye on the state’s bank account met at what’s officially called the Revenue Estimating Conference. Rick Pluta, Lansing Bureau Chief for the Michigan Public Radio Network was at the conference, and he spoke with me this afternoon from the Capitol building about what the numbers for the state's "bank account" look like for 2012.

To boil it down, consider some basic questions you might ask about your own finances:

• How much? : Pluta reports that a figure of $1 billion in budget surplus has been tossed around a lot by reporters over the last few days, but once upcoming spending pressures for 2012 are factored in, that number comes down to roughly $457 million.
• Spend or save? : Pluta says that according to the state's budget director, some surplus money could go into things like Medicaid and schools, but to improve the state's bond ratings, a portion will also likely go into savings.
• What about the economy? : Economists also weighed in at the conference and according to Pluta, the general consensus was that Michigan saw decent economic improvement early on in 2011 with growth of about 64,000 jobs for the year, but in recent moths things have become more sluggish--a trend that is expected to continue in 2012. Economists predict growth to the tune of roughly 27,000 new jobs in the state.
• What does the governor think? : Okay, so maybe you wouldn't ask yourself that question when thinking about your banking, but Pluta reports that regarding the state's money, Governor Rick Snyder plans to release recommendations soon, both about how the surplus should be used and what the next fiscal-year budget should look like.
  

Lately, you've probably heard or read a Michigan Radio story that includes this number: 1,800,000,000. In case you haven't had your morning coffee yet... that's 1.8 billion. Economic forecasters predict Michigan's budget, for the fiscal year that begins October 1st, is $1.8 billion in the red.

However, later today, that figure could change. That's because economists are meeting today for what's called a "revenue estimating conference" at the state Capitol. The economists will come up with an estimate of just how much money the state can expect to receive through the next fiscal year. As the state's website explains:

The Revenue Estimating Conference held each January is a major part of the budget process. During the conference, national and state economic indicators are used to formulate an accurate prediction of revenue available for appropriation in the upcoming fiscal year. This conference first convened in 1992, pursuant to Act No. 72 of the Public Acts of 1991. The principal participants in the conference are the State Budget Director and the Directors of the Senate and House Fiscal Agencies or their respective designees. Other participants may include the Governor and senior officials from the Department of Treasury.