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Politics & Government

NPR simulation shows Trump's difficult path to victory in Michigan

Use NPR's new elections simulator tool to see what demographic shifts could help or hurt Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton this November.
Colleen P
/
Flickr - http://j.mp/1SPGCl0
Use NPR's new elections simulator tool to see what demographic shifts could help or hurt Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton this November.

It would take a major swing in voter demographics to turn Michigan red in the upcoming presidential election, according to a new tool developed by NPR.

The 270 Project, which maps likely state-level winners based on the demographics and turnout rates of voters, allows election junkies to sketch out November's presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump by playing with five different margins of victory and turnout rates in various demographics: white male, white female, Black, Hispanic, and the rest of the electorate. 

The model begins by using results from the 2012 presidential election, which pitted President Barack Obama against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Obama won by a margin of 4.03%. 

Changing different demographics and turnout rates accounts for varying end results. For example, adding 5% to Obama's 2012 margin of victory among Black voters would edge Clinton in the state to 5.29%.

Increasing turnout among white men by 5%, on the other hand, cuts the Democratic edge to just 2.88%. 

You can play with the simulation yourself below.

Every input changes the calculation for 20 states considered to be potentially in play, ranging from traditional swing states like Florida and Ohio, to traditional blue states like New York and typical Republican strongholds like Arizona.

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